By Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge 9/13/22

An Alignable poll shows hiring freeze among SMBs hits a new record...

Based on the latest data from U.S. small businesses (SMBs), the demand for labor has declined again, with nearly two out of every three (63%) putting their hiring on hold because they can't afford to add staff, and 10% of that group is laying off workers.

This decline is quite significant, as it's 18% higher than it was in July (at just 45%). Beyond that, the percentage reducing their staff jumped 6% to 10% this month from just 4% in July.

These are two key findings from Alignable's September Hiring Report, released today. These insights are based on a poll of 5,618 small business employers from Aug. 13, 2022, through Sept. 6, 2022.

Examining labor costs alone, 58% of poll participants said labor costs are at least 50% higher than they were prior to COVID. Of those employers.

Nearly half (49%) of those in a hiring freeze now said they were hiring earlier this year, but shifted gears due to economic factors, including general inflation, labor costs, and fears of a recession.

Housing is hardly surprising. But even restaurants and travel businesses are now impacted.

By state, 75% of New York SMBs are halting hiring, 74% in Ohio, and 68% in Pennsylvania.

In a Recession?

Some 66% of them say we're in a recession for sure with 28% adding it feels more like a "Depression."

And they're 9% more pessimistic about the economy than the average U.S. SMB, as 57% of them think we're in a recession.

In Canada, 69% saying they're not expanding the number of employees.

The Alignable data will turn up in payroll data soon enough, assuming it hasn't already.

It's Increasingly Likely That Alleged Job Strength is a Mirage of Part Time Second Jobs

March to August Change

• Full Time: -383,000

• Part Time: +335,000

• Sum of Full and Part Time: -48,000

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +1,888,000

March to August Key Points

The economy added 1,888,000 jobs while full time employment declined by 383,000 and total employment (as measured by sum of full and part time) was down by 48,000.

The total discrepancy between the trends is 1,888,000 + 48,000 = 1,936,000

The household survey seems much more believable than the raw nonfarm payroll numbers.

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